Long gap since last post. I started the Climate Change blog and started focusing on it in late August--then got sidetracked there with busy times in real estate and some major adjustments in my perspective on the best way to address Climate Change.
2013 is here and there's always an opportunity to write something profound about the real estate market. How did I do last year? Not great, although the January 1, 2012 post is pretty cool. I just reread it and, perhaps unintentionally, I did some of those fun things on my list. Some attempts didn't work out so well, but the "outside the box" thing adds interest to life, if not always a perfect solution to all challenges.
I purchased a 2013 Racing Yellow Porsche Boxster with 20 inch Carrera wheels (painted black, no less). Picked it up on December 18th and still can hardly believe it belongs to me. That is FUN and way out of the box for me. I had a "if not now, when?" revelation and just decided that NOW was it. I call it my 65th birthday present to myself, but it's something I've been pondering for the past 3 years.
The other fun thing about stepping outside the box, is the reaction people have--both those who know you and those who really don't. You once fit neatly into a pigeon hole---and now, not so much. Some people are sorta uneasy about it, but others are excited. It gets back to the old question of how much any of us really understand about anyone else--even a family member or close friend. There's always a surprise coming, sometimes when least expected.
Speaking of real estate, what will 2013 produce? A REAL recovery would be nice, but not likely. We didn't really expect one in 2012. Some forecast 2013, but the absence of any meaningful housing content in the presidential election didn't bode well. Financing remains hung up on underwriting stringency.
Inventory sucks--no other way to say it. The lack of inventory is both a cause and effect of the delay in recovery. Sellers won't put their houses on the market without more appreciation and Buyers won't buy until there's better inventory (and some potential upside at the end of a rather short road). Distressed properties are not plentiful enough or attractive enough to tip the balance. Resort areas like those I work in were never controlled by distressed properties. In addition short sales and foreclosures are not flowing quickly into the market--and may not during much of 2013--so much for the shadow inventory argument.
What's all that mean? Probably lower numbers of sales than in 2012 and appreciation occurring largely among well located, prime properties. The national headlines will fail to capture reality yet again. This market will be VERY much a mosaic---all the way down to neighborhood and style. A recovery strong enough to float all ships is still waiting beyond the blue horizon.
We'll know more in a couple months--some predict a tsunami of new listings. I'd love to see that, but will not hold my breath.
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Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
spin off
Another delay. Been busy with real estate and with green issues related to real estate. That gets to the matter at hand. I've decided to start another blog to focus on Climate Change, energy efficiency in housing and other buildings, community planning strategies and lifestyle adjustments that reduce CO2 emissions. Should be up in a few days---developing list of names today.
There is a huge volume of information out there and most of it tends to be negative, bordering on scare tactics. That doesn't go over well with most people and most industries. Change is hard and it's even harder if that "you are not worthy as you are" shroud gets draped on the process.
There are positive things happening all over the world. Little things, big things and everything in between. There is a limitless buffet of possibilities---low hanging fruit for everyone! The key is for wide participation to occur sooner, rather than later. Ordinances alone won't get things where they need to be in time. Neither will business as usual.
Motivation, ability to act and trigger mechanisms are how behavior changes and those will be explored in detail using the new blog. Behavioral changes cost little or nothing, can happen quickly and when done by enough people can have a significant impact on CO2 emissions.
There is a huge volume of information out there and most of it tends to be negative, bordering on scare tactics. That doesn't go over well with most people and most industries. Change is hard and it's even harder if that "you are not worthy as you are" shroud gets draped on the process.
There are positive things happening all over the world. Little things, big things and everything in between. There is a limitless buffet of possibilities---low hanging fruit for everyone! The key is for wide participation to occur sooner, rather than later. Ordinances alone won't get things where they need to be in time. Neither will business as usual.
Motivation, ability to act and trigger mechanisms are how behavior changes and those will be explored in detail using the new blog. Behavioral changes cost little or nothing, can happen quickly and when done by enough people can have a significant impact on CO2 emissions.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Real Problem?
This is an interesting little 26 second look at 131 years of global warming. Depending on you viewpoint, it may be pure fantasy or a hard look at where were came from and where we're headed.
Take a look---and also look at the comments (still growing) below the video.
http://www.climatecentral.org/
The tough part for me was seeing that things were pretty good when I was a young lad--early 50's--AND even into the 60's and 70's---then the warming started accelerating. The last 20 years are disturbing to see. Normal climate cycle? Variation in sun's intensity? Perhaps, but evidence otherwise is substantial.
What if the warming is being caused by human activities? Is sustaining the sanctity of the institutions and governments worth the grave risks associated with a failure to seriously address the possibility and take all appropriate actions? The institutions seem to believe so--their actions speak quite loudly.
Take a look---and also look at the comments (still growing) below the video.
http://www.climatecentral.org/
The tough part for me was seeing that things were pretty good when I was a young lad--early 50's--AND even into the 60's and 70's---then the warming started accelerating. The last 20 years are disturbing to see. Normal climate cycle? Variation in sun's intensity? Perhaps, but evidence otherwise is substantial.
What if the warming is being caused by human activities? Is sustaining the sanctity of the institutions and governments worth the grave risks associated with a failure to seriously address the possibility and take all appropriate actions? The institutions seem to believe so--their actions speak quite loudly.
Laws of Nature?
I know, been a long time again---working with other media and doing a lot of reading. One of the things I've been struggling with is WHY there is less and less interest on the part of the governments, organizations, etc to directly deal with the fairly clear immediate effects of climate change and the dire prospects for future generations. A couple days ago I awoke in the middle of the night with the revelation outlined below---jotted most of it down in an email to a friend. Now that it's set down in writing, it seems obvious, but the idea of such a global fail is initially difficult to grasp. Unpleasant though it may be, understanding this illogical foundation for current actions may facilitate creation of some structure offering alternative paths into the future.
It is pretty clear from the fossil record that Mother Earth's Laws of Nature have produced some striking mass extinctions in the past--so the belief we don't need to fear any dire consequences from climate change seems a little naive. Major environmental shifts have occurred and will again. The driving force may be a bit different in our present predicament, but the Laws of Nature producing the global impacts are the same as in the past. That's why we call them LAWS!
The actions occurring now suggest THREE possibilities.
1. The institutions, corporations, governments, etc. sincerely believe that their power, money, control and political skill can suspend or modify the laws of nature. Specifically, they operate as though climate change is an optional politically malleable process, subject to spin doctors, expedient protocols and innovative interpretation, all designed to further the advance of chosen agendas. In this scenario Mother Earth is not perceived as the final judge of human conduct in the allocation of resources.
2. A more ominous possibility is that those institutions, etc. ACTUALLY DO understand the laws of nature and the role of Mother Earth in determining the future in a very definite way---according to HER LAWS--and they don't care. They are willing to incur the long term consequences of a planet supersaturated with human population and far beyond a tipping point, beyond which a marked reduction in population is inevitable in reaching a new equilibrium at a horizon marked by far less quality of life. In other words, to achieve their immediate agendas, the future be damned.
3. Finally there's a religious slant supposing that humans have dominion over the earth and a supreme being acting on their behalf will change the laws of nature in a timely way so things remain just fine for all, or at least those believing in the correct supreme being. Population or energy use won't matter in this divine world. This sort of magic is a little overdue, but perhaps the supreme being is waiting to maximize the PR opportunity created by an increasingly desperate humanity.
These three possibilities are fairly obvious. What is not obvious is why the public looks to politicians, corporate heads and religious leaders for information on climate change and repeatedly chooses to disregard the scientists who work for relatively low compensation their entire professional lives to achieve understanding of climatology, ecology and various other related disciplines. Our society apparently suffers from mass delusion created by the institutions for the benefit of the institutions.
My bet is on Mother Nature and her laws. I won't be around to see how things turn out---and I'm glad I won't be. The future is not likely to be pretty.
In the meantime, anything we can do to delay the apparently inevitable massive adjustment of population size and degradation in quality of life is worth the effort. Individuals must take initiative, because human society is apparently unable to cope effectively with the scale of the problem presented by an extreme addiction to excessive carbon loading.
Friday, June 1, 2012
How Green?
Another gap in the posts. Closed two escrows is two weeks, so been a little busy. Feast or famine defines real estate and consulting--when you do both it can get really hectic. Famine is worse, although having nothing on the calendar sometimes seems attractive. Folks who retire from real estate seem to experience rapid aging and loss of mental acuity, so the empty calendar has a darker side to it.
Went to a class a couple weeks ago intended for appraisers on valuation of energy efficient features. It lasted 7 hours--about 3 longer than my back endured some monumentally uncomfortable seating--I'm sure the designer's brother in law was an orthopedist. A couple of take away ideas emerged from the squirming
1. Appraisers don't set fair market value. I looked up "Fair Market Value" in Wikipedia--there's a specific definition that came out of a Supreme Court case. Doesn't mention appraisers. The point being---if appraisers were to start factoring in energy efficient characteristics in their reports, BUT the Sellers and Buyers remanded largely ignorant of their role in valuation, there's no market value incentive to increase energy efficiency. The appraisers would have another source of wiggle room in making the value come in, but those attributes would not have played a role in either pricing the house or in the Buyer's decision on how much to pay. The Buyer and Seller must be knowledgeable before fair market value is achieved. At present they aren't--at least in most cases.
2. The other idea involved the complexity of comparing energy efficient feathers between houses. Duct sealing vs additional insulation, vs more efficient HVAC, vs more effective passive solar characteristics, etc. etc. Sellers, Buyer and Agents don't have the skills now and probably won't. That makes energy ratings particularly important. The MPG approach isn't perfect, but it's certainly necessary to raise awareness and speed increasing the energy efficiency of the existing housing stock.
Unfortunately, the state and national real estate trade associations are still pounding their 600 lb gorilla chests about point of sale and energy ratings are considered point of sale fodder. So far, the local politicians are pretty cold on point of sale mandated ratings, BUT the election hasn't happened yet.
Bigger picture here is that AB32/SB375 sets standard that will be met or a huge amount of funds will be lost. Whatever happens at the state level that has the effect of reducing energy efficiency improvements at the local level merely raises the bar for the local Climate Action Plans. The state trade organization opposes several bills that would increase energy efficiency, but 2020 will come and the local governments will not wait until 2019 to figure out they aren't going to meet the standards.
The real estate industry seems to feel if they can beat back point of sale the game is over---they don't need to do any more. They can continue to do business as usual free of those onerous mandates. It's like the Meatloaf song "I'll do anything for love, but I won't do that". Agents will do anything for a sale, but they won't do green and they won't do energy ratings--and the trade associations are apparently fine with that.
The public will bring about the change--when and if they become knowledgeable that their best interests (as in fiduciary duty interests) are involved in determining total housing costs (including utility use), resale value, exposure to potential mandatory retrofits in the event the house they bought has poor energy efficiency. Ratings are a relatively simple solution to many of these problems, but adoption is impeded by the "no point of sale" knee jerk doctrine.
Next post will discuss some new thinking on whether mandatory point of sale ratings are really a good idea. I've changed my perspective over the past weeks. I can do that---unlike certain trade organizations.
Went to a class a couple weeks ago intended for appraisers on valuation of energy efficient features. It lasted 7 hours--about 3 longer than my back endured some monumentally uncomfortable seating--I'm sure the designer's brother in law was an orthopedist. A couple of take away ideas emerged from the squirming
1. Appraisers don't set fair market value. I looked up "Fair Market Value" in Wikipedia--there's a specific definition that came out of a Supreme Court case. Doesn't mention appraisers. The point being---if appraisers were to start factoring in energy efficient characteristics in their reports, BUT the Sellers and Buyers remanded largely ignorant of their role in valuation, there's no market value incentive to increase energy efficiency. The appraisers would have another source of wiggle room in making the value come in, but those attributes would not have played a role in either pricing the house or in the Buyer's decision on how much to pay. The Buyer and Seller must be knowledgeable before fair market value is achieved. At present they aren't--at least in most cases.
2. The other idea involved the complexity of comparing energy efficient feathers between houses. Duct sealing vs additional insulation, vs more efficient HVAC, vs more effective passive solar characteristics, etc. etc. Sellers, Buyer and Agents don't have the skills now and probably won't. That makes energy ratings particularly important. The MPG approach isn't perfect, but it's certainly necessary to raise awareness and speed increasing the energy efficiency of the existing housing stock.
Unfortunately, the state and national real estate trade associations are still pounding their 600 lb gorilla chests about point of sale and energy ratings are considered point of sale fodder. So far, the local politicians are pretty cold on point of sale mandated ratings, BUT the election hasn't happened yet.
Bigger picture here is that AB32/SB375 sets standard that will be met or a huge amount of funds will be lost. Whatever happens at the state level that has the effect of reducing energy efficiency improvements at the local level merely raises the bar for the local Climate Action Plans. The state trade organization opposes several bills that would increase energy efficiency, but 2020 will come and the local governments will not wait until 2019 to figure out they aren't going to meet the standards.
The real estate industry seems to feel if they can beat back point of sale the game is over---they don't need to do any more. They can continue to do business as usual free of those onerous mandates. It's like the Meatloaf song "I'll do anything for love, but I won't do that". Agents will do anything for a sale, but they won't do green and they won't do energy ratings--and the trade associations are apparently fine with that.
The public will bring about the change--when and if they become knowledgeable that their best interests (as in fiduciary duty interests) are involved in determining total housing costs (including utility use), resale value, exposure to potential mandatory retrofits in the event the house they bought has poor energy efficiency. Ratings are a relatively simple solution to many of these problems, but adoption is impeded by the "no point of sale" knee jerk doctrine.
Next post will discuss some new thinking on whether mandatory point of sale ratings are really a good idea. I've changed my perspective over the past weeks. I can do that---unlike certain trade organizations.
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Return to normal
Been a long time! Lots going on, not much positive.
My last cat, 18 year old Sasha, was put down on April 9th. Kidney failure and just plain old age. During her final 10 days I fed her chicken livers and picked up bacterial infection, Campylobacter. Thought it was stress, but didn't get well. Finally went to Dr. thinking chicken might be cause. then lab test came back and I got call from County Health--outbreak going on in CA. Meanwhile, my LA trip to see Springsteen was coming up--great timing there! Took a course of antibiotics and headed to LA in a bright red Impala (they didn't have compact to rent). I'll post separately about the concert and strange deja vu at USC--in summary it was AMAZING trip!. On way back up coast, stopped in Santa Barbara for brief discussion with new friend that tapped earlier intellectual pursuits. All the while working two escrows and trying to get over Campylobacter's effects.
Home just two days, repacked and then left for Sacramento and state association meetings--still in the red car. Cool in Sacramento. Food and tummy not yet happy together, but better. Chorus almost sang for Governor. He appeared about 10 minutes too late. Too bad, we sounded really good. Came home Friday May 5th--commuting traffic is like a NASCAR race from Sac to Bay area and south to San Jose. Made it to Los Osos in 4.5 hours!
Did booth at Home Show in SLO the next day--that's another post--more not very positive content.
When I arrived home after both trips I really missed being greeted by a cat. First time I've been cat-less in over 45 years. Didn't want to get more till I was home for a while, but I need to get on with choosing one or two, otherwise the weeks will pass and there are cats who need me too.
Sooo, coming up. Post on concert. Post on state association meetings, Post on Home Show.
I will return to blogging more regularly. This has not been a good year for health. Upper respiratory thing got me late January though first part of March, then Sasha faded, then bacterial infection and now it's May and pollen allergies are raging. Getting old is full of challenges--I'm betting these are just a phase--LOL.
My last cat, 18 year old Sasha, was put down on April 9th. Kidney failure and just plain old age. During her final 10 days I fed her chicken livers and picked up bacterial infection, Campylobacter. Thought it was stress, but didn't get well. Finally went to Dr. thinking chicken might be cause. then lab test came back and I got call from County Health--outbreak going on in CA. Meanwhile, my LA trip to see Springsteen was coming up--great timing there! Took a course of antibiotics and headed to LA in a bright red Impala (they didn't have compact to rent). I'll post separately about the concert and strange deja vu at USC--in summary it was AMAZING trip!. On way back up coast, stopped in Santa Barbara for brief discussion with new friend that tapped earlier intellectual pursuits. All the while working two escrows and trying to get over Campylobacter's effects.
Home just two days, repacked and then left for Sacramento and state association meetings--still in the red car. Cool in Sacramento. Food and tummy not yet happy together, but better. Chorus almost sang for Governor. He appeared about 10 minutes too late. Too bad, we sounded really good. Came home Friday May 5th--commuting traffic is like a NASCAR race from Sac to Bay area and south to San Jose. Made it to Los Osos in 4.5 hours!
Did booth at Home Show in SLO the next day--that's another post--more not very positive content.
When I arrived home after both trips I really missed being greeted by a cat. First time I've been cat-less in over 45 years. Didn't want to get more till I was home for a while, but I need to get on with choosing one or two, otherwise the weeks will pass and there are cats who need me too.
Sooo, coming up. Post on concert. Post on state association meetings, Post on Home Show.
I will return to blogging more regularly. This has not been a good year for health. Upper respiratory thing got me late January though first part of March, then Sasha faded, then bacterial infection and now it's May and pollen allergies are raging. Getting old is full of challenges--I'm betting these are just a phase--LOL.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Yet another opportunity
Not too long after the iPad was first introduced I went to a presentation on the new hardware at a state association business meeting. It was certainly cool, but during the presentation I realized that the coolest thing would be to use the iPad to create an electronic MLS book---like the old ones (remember them) only with big pictures, more data and agents could still flip through the pages. I remember some of the agents in offices I managed way back when would have tabs, color coding, paper clips--it was very intense.
That meeting was almost 3 years ago and now with iPad 3 there is even more reason to drop MLS data and photos into the handy package. A distributed data base incremental download could update the iPad in the AM, even if it did't have 4G. Rest of the day the WHOLE MLS database would be right there for open houses, showing property, doing analysis and arranging big beautiful photos. If some MLS vendor is already doing this, I haven't seen it around here.
MLS technology is one of those areas of innovation in which each vendor strives to be just a little better than the competition OR have some huge political clout to lever into expanding user base. Actually making a game changing advance is far from a priority. That's why greening the MLS is mostly lip service. MLS systems do not now support best interests of Buyers or Sellers seeking to pursue the benefits of energy efficiency to save on overall housing expenses and enhance the future of the planet. Apparently organized real estate is just along for the ride and the commission check. Business as usual is just fine. Carbon emission reductions can come from somewhere else. Nothing that would complicate the process or add expense to sales transactions could possibly have short term benefits that would justify the cost. Oh, and long term benefits don't count.
The Buyers and Sellers have the power to take control of real estate sales transactions back to better meet their best interests. Who benefits from NOT knowing the energy efficiency of houses? The few Sellers who have houses that perform much worse than would be expected AND the real estate industry seeking fast, easy, low risk commission checks. EVERYONE else suffers (as does the Planet). That's a tail wagging the energy hog sorta thing!
That meeting was almost 3 years ago and now with iPad 3 there is even more reason to drop MLS data and photos into the handy package. A distributed data base incremental download could update the iPad in the AM, even if it did't have 4G. Rest of the day the WHOLE MLS database would be right there for open houses, showing property, doing analysis and arranging big beautiful photos. If some MLS vendor is already doing this, I haven't seen it around here.
MLS technology is one of those areas of innovation in which each vendor strives to be just a little better than the competition OR have some huge political clout to lever into expanding user base. Actually making a game changing advance is far from a priority. That's why greening the MLS is mostly lip service. MLS systems do not now support best interests of Buyers or Sellers seeking to pursue the benefits of energy efficiency to save on overall housing expenses and enhance the future of the planet. Apparently organized real estate is just along for the ride and the commission check. Business as usual is just fine. Carbon emission reductions can come from somewhere else. Nothing that would complicate the process or add expense to sales transactions could possibly have short term benefits that would justify the cost. Oh, and long term benefits don't count.
The Buyers and Sellers have the power to take control of real estate sales transactions back to better meet their best interests. Who benefits from NOT knowing the energy efficiency of houses? The few Sellers who have houses that perform much worse than would be expected AND the real estate industry seeking fast, easy, low risk commission checks. EVERYONE else suffers (as does the Planet). That's a tail wagging the energy hog sorta thing!
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