Seminar musings delayed

Started writing this before Yeti's problems and some other stuff assumed high priority. Still some good thoughts, so I'll finish now.

Wasn't ready for the Photography Seminar (that was more about psychology than cameras), but I never get ready. It is easier to go with the flow when you're sorta prepared, but not married to the content. I did a PowerPoint thing that served as a matrix and will provide a starting point if I do something like this again. I had about 2 hours of stuff to get through in an hour, but did pretty well. I always learn more in the process of preparing for a seminar than the attendees learn by being there, but that's OK. They still get bleeding edge stuff they wouldn't get elsewhere (see earlier post re Back to the Future seminar in 2007(?)).

I'm still learning after all these years in a business not driven by theory or creative insight or anything more intellectual than incessant repetition. There's plenty of room for theory in real estate, but when the only metric of success out there is gross closed commissions, the status goes to those agents and firms with the biggest GCCs. There's no compelling incentive to break out across new horizons of quality service. The consumers use real estate services so seldom that most never actually figure out what quality service might represent.

Anyone ever ponder what would happen if real estate agents disappeared from the face of the earth? Buyers and Sellers would still do transactions--and they might do them better and more cost effectively. Other countries have very different real estate business traditions--and in those countries that are greatly different from the US, there are typically no powerful trade associations. It is miraculous how people manage to find homes and build subdivisions without a huge real estate industry to help them!

Do the trade association actually improve the process or do they impede progress by creating a least common denominator, one size fits all standard of practice that raises the bar a little., but discourages the exuberant leaps skyward that signal those game changing epiphanies that make human existence fulfilling. In recent years  the trade organization have entered the business end of real estate in a major way. They sell products to the captive member audience who also received educational opportunities that--you guessed it--suggests that those trade association products are the best, if not the only way to run a real estate brokerage properly.

The trade associations are defining the cutting edge and also selling the whetstones to keep it sharp. It's a capitalist tradition!

Anyone ask the buyers and sellers if they are happy with the process, the forms, the quality of service etc.
No need--there's little else to choose from. You get what the trade organizations decide you get. Want more? Good luck!

NOTES from AFTER THE SEMINAR
It went well--PowerPoint was good and time wasn't a huge factor--ran a little over and didn't get much time to play with enhancing photos, but that gets pretty dull unless your really motivated and already familiar with the software. A couple of area need more work, but I've got ideas already on how to improve integration. The other benefit of PowerPoint is there something permanent created--I can expand, or divide it into several shorter segments, etc. Otherwise the notes get lost in the computer files and development ends.

Hope to do more seminars next year--this is the only seminar this year, aside from the Energy Rating event. The state association decided to take over the education business and local content is rare or nonexistent anymore.The title companies can't do much of anything after latest regs kicked in, so its a desert wasteland out there. The state association offerings do have value, but they are loaded with legal, risk management stuff, that ignores how the real world works and considered the principals a threat, rather than the stakeholders that support the whole real estate industry.

The little details and techniques that characterize excellent agents are lacking from these generic offerings and with a minimum of office culture in the current business model there's no place for new agents to pick up that sort of knowledge.

The real estate office was a much different place 25 years ago. Technology hasn't been kind to the Buyers and Sellers in terms of real estate service levels. The irony is that they WANT MORE technology, not less, but consumers don't always know what they NEED, particularly when the industry admires many things with greater intensity than service levels (as in GCC).

Look at automobiles as a comparison. There are inexpensive cars that perform well. There are more expensive cars that perform somewhat better. Then there are very expensive cars that boast even more performance, cutting edge engineering and outstanding styling/design down to the last detail. Some consumers are willing to pay the extra to get the very best. Watches are similar. I use a discontinued sports watch I got at a discount sporting goods store--keeps good time and cost $20. A friend has a Rolex, a Breitling etc. etc. They keep excellent time and look fabulous. There are fine watches for those who value the ambiance, aesthetics and performance of quality.

In real estate, there's really not much difference in service levels. What if you wanted the VERY best representation in selling a fine home? We're talking attention to every detail from diverse analytics to compelling ad copy to exquisite photography, dynamic videographyGCC world runs quite nicely just the way it is--sides and commissions measure success. List the house, lower the price and it will eventually sell and then go do that again and again. If you do it often enough celebrity status is possible. The superstars have the same tools as everyone else and know how to use them relentlessly--like a skilled production painter spraying a stucco wall and moving on to the next job. Technology plays a role in this pattern--offering a least common denominator platform, but at what cost to the consumer? How many Buyers miss buying the RIGHT HOUSE. How many Sellers miss the RIGHT BUYER. We don't really know! Where are the true artists of real estate sales? Most of the singular artists are in other professions where creativity and innovation are rewarded and appreciated. Real estate mostly appreciates gross closed commissions.

Will those trends change in the future? If they do, it won't be due to the encouragement and nurturing of the trade associations.

Turkey days

Another of my cats, Yeti, is at peace. Second in a few months, following Eva the office cat who had a stroke at 13 year (or so).

Yeti, nearly 16 years, was born in my bed and was a gentle giant of a Ragdoll. He weighed almost 30 pounds in his prime and was just a spectacular cat in so many ways. Huge blue eyes. Whiskers a foot wide. Athletic to an amazing degree, considering his size. He just seemed to levitate! His 30 lbs would effortlessly leap up on counters or sail up stairs like he was a giant chipmunk. He did well through his 13 th year then started to loose weight. Thyroid issues forced him on meds and he gained some weight back in first half of 2010. Later his kidneys got progressively worse. His condition took an abrupt nose dive on Saturday, Nov 20th. Test results were not good so I made the difficult decision. He is survived by his sister Sasha--different father, but also a big cat--22 lbs. She's adjusting and so am I.

Cats are perfect at being cats. Much better than humans are at being humans. Most of us never figure that out.
They offer unconditional support--something unknown among humans. They don't care how your day went, or if you were victorious or fell on your face. They purr regardless. They also choose not to be trained. They are what they are--perfect. My mother was always trying to train them--and in her own mind was successful. In her estimation no living creature was ever worthy the way it was. There was always room for improvement and she knew the path--LOL. Yeti and Sasha seemed to smile at her efforts. After all, they'd lived with me for 12 years before they met her!

2010 made my life simpler. My mother died, two cats died, divorce is underway and a friend or two drifted off. Simple is good in some ways, but as the connections decline, so does socialization.

At open house today, I resolved to get back on the blogging with greater intensity. The vacation rental issue is settling down a little and there's sure not much real estate business going on. I certainly have the time. New books to read and comment on too.

More posts this week!

The art of politics

Installation dinner last night at one of the associations I belong to. Food was pretty good for a change--at least warm and edible--big plus for banquet fare. Small turn out, but evening events tend to be lightly attended because of cost and timing. Lunchtime installations are well attended, but fewer of those present are really interested in the purpose.

Those involved in local associations, and other organizations big and small, tend to fall into two general groups. Those who pursue the political arts and those who'd rather engage in the creative arts. There's not really much crossover. This being the US, the political types get the spotlight--and usually love it with boundless intensity. The creative types run the gamut, some crave admiration of their art and others focus primarily on art production, with little concern about who appreciates it.

The evolution of real estate, or just about anything else, is not driven by the politicians. They'll take credit for progress when they can get away with it, and any member of the public who doesn't understand the difference between new ideas and spin doctoring will believe them. The true creative artists know that innovation and purity of thought cannot be molded, spun and summarized to suit the ever changing political winds, without a large measure of damage, dilution and mutation. We live in a world of mutated ideas, a sure indication of political ascendancy.

Occasionally an individual is thrust into the opposite mode. Typically the creative artist treads into the political spotlight. Politicians usually know better than to try the other direction. The result is seldom pretty. I have some experience in that area--LOL. The political types become instantly uncomfortable with a creative person in close proximity. The usual motivational hot buttons (power, control, celebrity) are not easily pushed. There's also the chance that the misplaced creative person might actually do work and achieve something tangible, maybe even something game changing. That would reset the political terrain in a very awkward way.

Politician want to remain on the path that brought them to their present exalted status. They don't want to leave the path. They are comfortable there. They have control there. They have power there. They have stability there. The public may need the politicians to embark on a new path to meet new challenges, but the interests of the public are seldom given higher priority than the comfort of the politicians---by the politicians or the public. The public always gets the quality of political artists they deserve. The seldom get the quality they need.

Technology and Wisdom

Did the seminar last Friday and among the powerpoint gems (those are really cool phrases that you come up with to fill up powerpoint pages) was a one liner I've used before "Technology is good, Wisdom is better".

One of the people at the seminar (among the very few--hey we're talkin real estate agents here, I wasn't surprised or anything) mentioned that line from the seminar in a Facebook post AND that started me thinking about why technology DOES NOT necessarily make us smart. We THINK it does. I mean we learn to work some new cell phone, or computer or Blu Ray player and we're stoked. WOW! Forget the passing years, we're really with the program! I'm thought a techie 'cause I can work a lot of techie stuff and got my higher education during the rise of the computer. Fortunately I also read a lot and most of the books I read back in the day had NOTHING to do with today's technology. Some of the books are just as golden today as they were 40-50 years ago.

What if technology doesn't work like that? What if we don't get smart? What if we actually get less smart and farther away from wisdom than when we started?

Driving home, I asked the question--WHY?

In one sense technology does make us smart---about the technology. Yes, we can use it, but that's a mixed blessing, because it's cool and it's generally quicker, or more satisfying than what it replaced--THAT is a key. REPLACED. What did the technology replace?

Technology SAMPLES and PROCESSES and COMMUNICATES information about the REAL WORLD. It tends to incorporate errors into each of those steps and they are seldom linear or predictable to the recipient of the communication, who gets a biased subset of the information available in the real world. The recipient could take a critical look at the communication and the process and the sampling, but that defeats the whole purpose--besides, surely someone already did that, HUH?

I was a scientist for about 20 years in another lifetime and did a fair amount of field work sampling habitats.
We were very concerned with those samples and started with carefully thought out sampling designs, then moved to protocols and finally determined the best sampling apparatus or on occasion built a new apparatus. Then we tested the sampling against other sampling regimens before we did full blown field work.

Today things are different. The technology drives the sampling design and protocol and analysis and communication. A new technology arises and it's assumed it's better and out it goes into the real world to do its thing and we wave the results gleefully in the air--eureka! Technology triumphant and we're smarter already! Oh really?

In businesses such as real estate where theory is treated like a guy wearing a tux at a bull riding contest, there little interest in what information is being left out, sampled in a biased way or just mismanaged. There's also the fear that someone else may out tech our business model--OMG!

Too bad, because real people live in real houses. They don't live in a virtual world defined by technology. The basics of living in a house or a tent or a cave haven't changed much since humans evolved. Can technology replace all that primal stuff just because the cerebral cortex is a pretty versatile and plastic part of a very complicated brain? Probably not.

Technology is good, but Wisdom is better.

Perhaps wisdom doesn't need technology as much as technology needs wisdom.

computer note

I've been so busy I missed the debut of the new Mac Book Air models. There's 11.6 inch and 13 inch models. They are REALLY cool. Form factor is great and the tomorrowland design elements are Apple through and through.

The smaller model isn't much heavier than an iPad and of course it has a keyboard and runs the full Apple OS. For those pondering an iPad purchase--consider the new smaller Mac Book Air. It's about the same size, it's a computer (albeit not the only computer you'd need) and for those who write a lot, the keyboard is actually pretty nifty. Processor is not cutting edge, but the performance tests suggest the whole thing runs faster than you'd expect from the pieces. Boot to browser is less than 20 seconds--that is amazing with PC boot times in the 2 minute range these days.

I typed on one at the Apple Store and the keyboard has pretty good touch and spacing. I am a touch typist so keyboards are important. The kid at the store was amazed to hear my story of buying a Mac 512K and Imagewriter I in 1985 for $1900. He wasn't born yet. At first I had external and internal 400K single sided disc drives--later upgraded to double sided, providing 800K a drive. Data on one, OS and application on the other. Things worked fine--word processing, using WriteNow, was faster than PC Word today. Have we advanced all that far in 25 years?

Now I'm leaning toward a new small MacBook Air and maybe later an iMac as my main computer. This laptop is 3+ years old has some quirks and is full to the brim--photos do that. I like texting on my cell phone, but have never been excited about email and Internet on it.

I know, things just get more complicated. That's the one sure thing about technology.

One more quick topic!

Heard a brief talk re the statewide MLS that isn't, and isn't even called that anymore. Being run by the large mergor for the small mergee (actually the state association rag tag assortment of small contracts). The old application has a new name, but is still not fully finished--after two years of development.

Here's the point I want to make. Where is the 4.5 million dollars (and all the hidden costs in terms of volunteer time and staff time that doesn't show in the 4.5)? There is now optimistic talk of the great job the mergor staff is doing running things at the new merged entity and the tacit admission that the committee/staff of the state association didn't really have the ability or inclination to accomplish the original goal--do ya think??? So the money is gone, the time is gone, the competitors for MLS technology leadership marched on as the money and time left--two f them are rolling out Flex based MLS applications in beta already.

What are the consequences of this episode at the state association? Apparently none. It's being treated as an oops! Were there lessons learned? There weren't any learned when they dropped over a million dollars into the stillborn intelligent agent money pit not so many years ago. This may be no different. Teflon coating for everyone?

Accountability is in short supply among the Kool Aid Krowd. Too busy climbing ladders and kissing anatomical metaphors. After all, it's only member dues money and the cost per member isn't much--hey, it's our organization so we're just stuck when things go sideways. Bad stuff happens---but why does it happen again and again? Could it be that the core leadership and staff stay in place for decades? Same people doing the same stuff generally leads to the same results. There is no effective way to change that with the present political system in place. It takes a long time to enter the ranks of leadership and only those who chug the Kool Aid ever last that long--once approaching leadership levels, those power-inebriated aspirants would never jeopardize their ascent by suggesting things weren't perfect the way they are. Great system, except the real world operates in a different arena----AS DOES THE PUBLIC, whom we represent.

Slow start for Nov!

Many distractions going on now making it abundantly clear that BLOGGING is not a really high priority in my life at present (probably a good thing). My seminar is coming up Friday and I'm not ready. Trying the get the divorce settlement agreement finished and approved--looking pretty good now. Vacation rental hearings continue--been doing a lot of writing on those. A listing I have in SLO has new price and new ads and open houses coming up AND the photo business is seeing a little bump in activity. In addition, I injured my foot, can't run for a couple more days, and that always puts me in a funk. Endorphins are my friends!

Don't get me started on the elections. California fared better than rest of nation for the progressive agenda, but overall, it was disturbing to see the politics of fear and self/other loathing win a major share of the votes.

The best and the brightest are not running for office at a time when we need them as much as ever in the history of the US. The sobering thing is that politics has become a non-intellectual pursuit. Knowledge, theoretical skill and creativity mean nothing in today's political climate. It's all about pandering to latent fears and base instincts. You could call it the tribal imperative, but that would be unfair to the ancestral hunter gatherers.

No sign of a change and no sign of a middle ground where cooperation and bipartisanship might actually focus on problems instead of doctrine. The PACs and major corporate contributors tend to push money to the extreme ends to the political spectrum. Know any PACs that specialize in supporting moderates? That needs to change, but all the politicians who are in office are loath to sacrifice their campaign money to achieve better result for the public. Job number one is to get elected and job number two is to hold that office or get elected to a higher office--there are no other significant jobs in the priority list.