Resume!

Long gap since last post. I started the Climate Change blog and started focusing on it in late August--then got sidetracked there with busy times in real estate and some major adjustments in my perspective on the best way to address Climate Change.

2013 is here and there's always an opportunity to write something profound about the real estate market. How did I do last year? Not great, although the January 1, 2012 post is pretty cool. I just reread it and, perhaps unintentionally, I did some of those fun things on my list. Some attempts didn't work out so well, but the "outside the box" thing adds interest to life, if not always a perfect solution to all challenges.

I purchased a 2013 Racing Yellow Porsche Boxster with 20 inch Carrera wheels (painted black, no less). Picked it up on December 18th and still can hardly believe it belongs to me. That is FUN and way out of the box for me. I had a "if not now, when?" revelation and just decided that NOW was it. I call it my 65th birthday present to myself, but it's something I've been pondering for the past 3 years.

The other fun thing about stepping outside the box, is the reaction people have--both those who know you and those who really don't. You once fit neatly into a pigeon hole---and now, not so much. Some people are sorta uneasy about it, but others are excited. It gets back to the old question of how much any of us really understand about anyone else--even a family member or close friend. There's always a surprise coming, sometimes when least expected.

Speaking of real estate, what will 2013 produce? A REAL recovery would be nice, but not likely. We didn't really expect one in 2012. Some forecast 2013, but the absence of any meaningful housing content in the presidential election didn't bode well. Financing remains hung up on underwriting stringency.

Inventory sucks--no other way to say it. The lack of inventory is both a cause and effect of the delay in recovery. Sellers won't put their houses on the market without more appreciation and Buyers won't buy until there's better inventory (and some potential upside at the end of a rather short road). Distressed properties are not plentiful enough or attractive enough to tip the balance. Resort areas like those I work in were never controlled by distressed properties. In addition short sales and foreclosures are not flowing quickly into the market--and may not during much of 2013--so much for the shadow inventory argument.

What's all that mean? Probably lower numbers of sales than in 2012 and appreciation occurring largely among well located, prime properties. The national headlines will fail to capture reality yet again. This market will be VERY much a mosaic---all the way down to neighborhood and style. A recovery strong enough to float all ships is still waiting beyond the blue horizon.

We'll know more in a couple months--some predict a tsunami of new listings. I'd love to see that, but will not hold my breath.