Thursday, February 17, 2011

Property Resource Theater

Ever seen a really nicely done Playbill for the production of an original play--that SUCKED? The quality of the Playbill is not always a good predictor of the quality of the play. Real estate faces a similar situation with data, whether from MLS systems or other aggregations. The data don't necessarily predict the appeal of the property. In the early days of the MLS no one expected there to be a correlation between appeal and MLS information. The information was rudimentary, the photo (if there was one) was generally smudgy and fuzzy, barely good enough to allow recognition of the house for sale. Agents went out and looked at the real deal.

MLS data became much more comprehensive over the years and the ability to post photos improved, although most systems do a poor job with photos even today---LOTS of information in those photos adding to download times and refresh rates. Compromise usually dumbs down photo quality.

Now we have a burgeoning property resource, in fact a couple of them, that promise to consolidate tax data, MLS data (perhaps), neighborhood data, etc, etc. into a nifty container that will---what will it actually do?
Some think it will enable AVMs (automated valuation models) to put an accurate value on every property in the US. The key is "accurate"--who measures and how?

MLS data is far more detailed than property tax data, but has it become a good predictor of appeal? More to the point--are there attributes that might contribute significantly to appeal that are not represented at all in the data set or that are not very well represented? YOU BET!

The property resource advocates seem comfortable with that situation. The resource is not intended to be perfect, just significantly better than anything before. Nevertheless the latest AVM is touted as a major feature and that feature is a key marketing point in selling the resource to Banks and Appraisers AND convincing MLSs to hand over the data.

In theory, appraisers create an adjustment to accommodate attributes not covered by the data set, but there's an urge to suppress that kind of subjectivity because it may incur scrutiny from the AMC, trigger reviews or revisions that make the assignment less than profitable.

Bottom line--how valuable is a value estimate that leaves key attributes out of the consideration? Do we even care about MARKET VALUE anymore? The national and state trade associations seems to be saying NO!
They're, once again, creating a new reality that they can manage and profit from. That reality has little to do with the best interests of the public.

Cookie cutter, one size fits all solutions inevitably screw some individuals out of receiving optimal consideration for their needs and wants and assets. To an institutional/organizational mentality measuring success by the tens of thousands of sides closed, that's is just fine and dandy. It may not be the RIGHT house, but it's a house and it's a revenue statistic.

When I managed offices and trained agents back before techno-bling and corporate excess grabbed control of real estate this was a key mantra:

The Buyers and Sellers measure success ONE TRANSACTION AT A TIME!

If the property resource represents progress toward increasing that measure, I'm missing something.

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