Further down the lane

Yes, I missed a day--90 year old mother under hospice care got food poisoning--kept me busy in non blogging mode yesterday. I did do some writing that will take up two blogs. It's therapeutic to sit with a pen and paper sometimes. Seems more organic ( a word you'll see again shortly).

Here are some thoughts.

Major question: Is the home buying decision process characterized by a shift in the proportion of analytical vs intuitive weighting along a timeline beginning with first interest and ending with the purchase?

MLS alphanumeric data may come into play early in the process when that's all the information there is. It's difficult to use intuition on some numbers or pictures that don't usually offer any real insight into the “emotional feel” of the house.

What does the MLS data accomplish—or IDX data for that matter? It acts to coarsely filter the listings – mostly for agents and mostly because they often don't have a intimate familiarity with the actual houses to produce an expectation of any Buyer's feelings about them.

Do the Buyers understand this role of the MLS? Most Buyers probably assume more of the MLS than it can deliver. Despite burgeoning trends, the agent's role isn't really to provide technical support for the MLS system or IDX site. The agent still has an obligation to supply a human perspective on what is ultimately a human process. Experience with the subtle nuances that shape present appeal and influence future marketability lies outside MLS data.

I don't think anyone would imagine a day anytime soon when they would choose their house solely on Internet data, but I think Buyers preload the decision process with data that may not be heavily weighted in the final decision. Most Buyers should defer forming opinions until they see the houses in person, as well as the setting neighborhood, etc. They should be warned not to do too much filtering based on data alone. The trade organizations and brokers are promoting the idea that Buyers can get down to just a very few houses without ever getting into a car to go see them. That's good for Gross Closed Commissions, but might not produce the most satisfying decisions. "Looks good on paper" is a phrase coined long before the Internet, but it has relevance in the cyberworld. You live in a house in the real world, not as an avatar in an Internet experience.

Putting time in online has its benefits—if expectations are realistic. Buyers can certainly learn about the houses in an area by looking at online info. Can you determine the “feel”? Probably not. You might be able to rule out some houses---let's say you don't want to do major remodeling and you want a certain ambiance—some houses are just not going to work. Then there are fuzzy areas though. How likely is it that such filtering might miss houses that should be in the final short list.

I sketched a timeline graphic that should appear somewhere. Horizontal time axis and distance above and below axis shows the proportions of analytical vs intuitive share of the decision making process. It's a funny shape—sorta a meandering stream. The interesting thing is that Technology has shifted the stream—and maybe not along a good channel.

One of the dangers of looking online is that it might encourage and sustain preconceived notions about what houses might emerge in the final list. MLS/IDX data probably plays a big role in the generation of preconceived ideas. In the old low/no tech world of 25 years ago—people just starting out in a new town probably had very little idea of what they would find. That's not necessarily a bad thing—particularly if the Realtors back then really knew the inventory and the personal aspects of the final decision.

Technology has loaded the early part of the search process with LOTS of data—most of it without much use to Buyers or Agents. It would be possible to develop MLS systems that better represented real houses, but no one thus far has embarked on that journey—some are thinking about it. There could be a more organic MLS system or data display application. Tradition dies hard though and quite a few major companies are making a very nice profit with the systems now in use.

On the ominous heretical side there is a possibility that current technology may actually encourage Buyers to make less than optimal decisions skewed by analytical reasoning supported by the questionable belief that technology trumps intuition.

Cynical creature that I am, I realize that there's a multi billion dollar industry based on real estate technology that didn't exist 25 years ago. I sometimes wonder if there is a significant benefit for the Buyer or is the Buyer just paying for it all?

Choosing a house is, after all, just decision making—it's a left brain/right brain thing and MLS systems are all about the left brain. How could MLS systems be designed to pull a little more right brain thinking into the process? Next Blog!